by Sean Holstege – Apr. 15, 2010
The Arizona Republic
Regional planners are mapping new light-rail lines in places that were inconceivable a few years ago, as they grapple with how urban Arizona takes shape in the coming half-century.
Preliminary studies show that sufficient demand will exist for light rail to succeed on 44th Street, Camelback Road, south Central Avenue, Bell Road and other routes not previously planned, building a web far more expansive than what is currently envisioned.
Officials at the Maricopa Association of Governments, Arizona Department of Transportation and Metro say the conceptual routes are not intended to replace the voter-approved plan for 57 miles of track. But early findings support leading transportation figures who say the Phoenix region has a historic opportunity to rethink light rail’s role – and maybe change some original routes.
Driving the new ideas are changes in national policies, demographic trends and a deepening awareness of the causes and effects of the Great Recession. The federal government plans to ease funding for urban mass-transit projects, and Valley cities are adjusting their plans to cash in.
Whatever happens may be decades away, with no money identified to build any of it. But transit and other leaders say the country is at a pivotal moment that could shape the future of cities like Phoenix.
“It’s not economically sustainable to continue the infrastructure investments of the past. The times are long gone that highways and master-planned developments can be financed, publicly or privately,” said Shannon Scutari, ADOT’s director of rail and sustainability.
Central Phoenix Councilman and Metro Chairman Tom Simplot said the changing landscape is significant.
“It’s real,” he said. “We do have this opportunity. It’s almost like a second bite at the apple, and shame on us if we don’t take it.”
Since the region passed Proposition 400 six years ago, a number of changes are bringing fresh thinking about an expanded light-rail system in the Valley:
• Long-range planning.
Long-range studies, drafted in anticipation of projected growth, have found transit systems would workand have spurred new studies looking into previously ignored rail possibilities.
Previous MAG and ADOT studies found that a 105-mile system of commuter trains plying existing freight tracks would rival any in the Western United States. Planners identified several potentially successful light-rail routes, including Bell Road from Scottsdale Airpark to Peoria, the Valley’s most heavily-traveled street.
This month, MAG embarked on a new long-range plan for the urban core. The region will map the transportation needs for Phoenix and other core cities at build-out.
Hand-in-glove, Phoenix is revising its general plan to define the city’s development goals. Simplot says to expect more density, efforts to connect the city’s urban villages and using light rail to help spur redevelopment.
An extension eastward along Camelback Road has attracted new attention. MAG favors it because the region needs better east-west mobility. It was the only one of five major employment centers that wasn’t connected by rail in original planning, Metro planner Wulf Grote said.
• Rail operations.
After 16 months of service, Metro has a better grasp of how people use the system and what its shortcomings are.
Metro continues to see double-digit ridership increases over a year ago and carried 34 percent more people than projected last year. Metro doesn’t experience a sharp drop in riders between morning and evening rush hours. Many people ride it off-peak to sporting events, museums and restaurants for rides typically shorter than 8 miles.
It’s a high-density urban system, with frequent stops, but that presents challenges, too. It takes more than an hour to travel end to end, from Phoenix’s Spectrum Mall to Mesa.
Trips would be longer when the trunk-and-branch system is built out.
Expansion plans call for as many as four extensions on the western side of the line and two on the eastern end. Future northbound riders on Central Avenue would have to choose among three different routes as they near Camelback. Lines on Washington and Jefferson streets would jam up with trains from four branches.
“The impact of all those lines converging is a real problem,” says Eric Anderson, MAG’s senior transportation planner. “Maybe we really need to take one step back and say, ‘Do we have all the lines in the right places?’ ”
“It forces a transfer,” said Steve Banta, who took charge at Metro in January. “We need to look at how to design the expansion to minimize that.”
He imagines an east-west line from downtown Glendale to Paradise Valley Mall in Phoenix. Others envision a new line along Thomas Road.
That concept of crossing tracks has been effective in other cities, most notably Washington D.C.
A common complaint is that large areas of the Valley can’t use rail. Planners are looking at a south Phoenix line to serve neighborhoods removed from existing track.
The other potential drawback to the expansion plan is that it tacks on commuter-style lines to a slower urban system. Suburban riders might not have the patience for frequent stops or might prefer a commuter rail line.
• National policy.
A revolution in national transportation will favor urban mass transit investments, and make light-rail proposals more competitive for federal funding.
The Federal Transit Administration plans to unveil new rules for funding rail projects this spring. Lawmakers on the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee want to codify those changes into law.
Cities can expect a better shot at getting rail projects funded. Federal law requires projects be rated for their benefits to mobility, the environment, potential, quality of life and other factors.
The Bush administration considered only applicants rated highly for cost-effectiveness – systems had to carry the most passengers for the least money. The policy “really stifled development of transit in a lot of communities,” says Jim Berard, transportation committee spokesman.
Now, the FTA will favor ones that best meet the “smart growth” criteria. Final details will likely take a year to work out, but already the shift has seen results, FTA spokesman Paul Griffo says. Federal money is helping Minneapolis build three new stations in underserved minority neighborhoods that it previously dropped because of cost-effectiveness measures.
Tucson last year competed with hundreds of cities to win a $67 million grant from a federal stimulus program to build a streetcar project. The project’s inclusion is a clear signal of the Obama administration’s transportation priorities and suggests that new light-rail lines in the Phoenix area would be competitive.
Metro’s 3-mile Mesa extension looks a promising candidate.
• The Great Recession.
When an inflated housing market cratered the economy and cheap gas became a thing of the past, Phoenix-area planners realized the grow-outward model could become unsustainable.
The recession pushed thousands of people to abandon their homes to foreclosure, starting in suburban fringes.
“The places that had the most foreclosures were the places with the most exposure to transportation costs,” said Scott Bernstein, president of the Chicago-based Center for Neighborhood Technology, which analyzes the combined costs.
A decade ago, nationally, suburban and urban foreclosures matched one-for-one. Last year it was four-to-one, he said.
Aaron Golub, a professor of sustainability and urban planning at Arizona State University, points out that in 2006, Arizona and the country saw for the first time in history a sustained drop in driving. He said it suggested a shift in habits. Longer-term shifts are more significant.
“The demographic changes are so vast that the number of single-family detached homes that the Valley needs in 2050 have already been built,” he says.
• Demographics.
Those changes could be ushering an historic realignment of urban development. America’s 50-year suburban explosion began after World War II with cheap gas, affordable cars and Baby Boom families.
In 2010, it’s not clear if the recession halted that, but housing appetites are shifting in two important ways.
Americans are living healthier, longer. Aging boomers want to maintain an active lifestyle in their retirement and some can’t get around by car.
At the same time, the Millennial Generation, those who reached adulthood after 2000, are coming to prominence. A recent in-depth study by the Pew Research Center showed that Millennials are eco-conscious and urban. Pew found that 32 percent live in central cities, compared with 23 percent of children of the Depression. They also don’t want long car commutes.
“It’s all about choice, and the suburban lifestyle offers very little,” Golub observes.
Smart growth is not a new idea. What is new is an emerging market for smart-growth developments, which light rail could play a big role in creating.