Bad economy, high unemployment cited as likely causes for decline
At a time when many mass-transit systems across the country are enjoying a resurgence, the San Diego Trolley lost 6.5 million passengers.
While expressing reservations about their own numbers, Metropolitan Transit System officials say familiar suspects are behind this 17.5 percent ridership loss in fiscal 2010, which ended June 30: a bad economy, high unemployment, cutbacks in state funding, relatively stable gas prices.
“I really believe it is a reflection of the economy,” says county Supervisor Ron Roberts, a member of the MTS board of directors. “It is a concern, but I do not believe it is a rejection of the trolley by riders.”
The agency also raised rates last year and made some cutbacks in services to meet its budget. Almost no corner of the MTS system — city buses, express buses, trolleys — escaped the effects of a failed economy and double-digit unemployment. The whole system lost just more than 10 percent of its riders last year, according to the agency’s annual report.
A national survey of light rail systems by the American Public Transportation Association saw an average increase in ridership of 3.16 percent in the first half of 2010.
But MTS’ revenue picture isn’t as bleak as its ridership figures. “What I think we’re also seeing is passenger revenue is constant or flat at best,” says MTS CEO Paul C. Jabonski.
Customers are still buying monthly and day passes but taking fewer trips, he said.
Fewer jobs and furloughs are keeping people off the trolleys, too. Jablonski points to the border where pedestrian crossings from Mexico are down around 6 percent. “Ninety percent of them end up taking the (Blue Line) trolley,” he notes.
But the transit agency suggests another reason for the staggering drop in trolley riders: The number could be wrong. The MTS officials think the actual ridership drop is less than 9 percent.
MTS marketing and communications director Rob Schupp says the transit agency has questioned the numbers that come from SANDAG, the regional planning and engineering agency, for the last couple of years.
“You normally expect to see a correlation in riderships,” notes Jablonski. “If buses are down 5 percent, the trolley would be down 5 percent.”
Ridership did indeed drop across the board. City buses lost as much as 5.1 percent. Express buses lost 12.3 percent. The lightly traveled circulator buses, which run self-contained routes, lost 22.3 percent. Only the minuscule rural bus service saw an increase, 9.3 percent.
And those numbers, Jablonski says, are “pretty accurate.”
But trolley ridership numbers are estimates, based on a formula that includes single-ride ticket sales. Jablonski says trolley rider habits have changed in recent years: More riders than ever buy monthly Compass cards or unlimited-trip day passes.
MTS and SANDAG may have less to disagree on next year. An automated passenger counting system is being installed on 65 trolley cars, starting in November. It will give real-time numbers on passengers.
As for the current drop in passengers, whether 9 percent or nearly twice that, Jablonski says MTS will continue to tweak at the system, trip by trip.
“This is cyclical,” he said. “Things will improve as the economy improves. As soon as unemployment starts coming down, we’ll get our ridership back.”
bob.hawkins@uniontrib.com (619) 718-5253